International Terrorism and the Stability of the Western Balkans

10th International Conference of the Albanian Atlantic Association

Fabrizio W. Luciolli

Secretary General of the Italian Atlantic Committee

Tirana, 16th April 2005

Terrorism in the Western Balkans is not an unknown phenomenon. Distinguished victims marked the history of terrorism in the region: Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914; General Alexander Protogeroff in 1928; the historian Milan Sufflay in 1931; the Director of the Yugopress agency, Toni Shchlegel, in 1929; the King of Yugoslavia, Alexander Karadjeordjevic, together with the French Minister, Louis Barthou, in 1934.
Moreover, the struggle of the ORIM movement against another Macedonian faction caused in the same years 884 victims, and in 1924 a whole train exploded in Zagreb in order to kill a political delegation ready to swear in the hands of King Alexander.

During the XX Century the terrorist threat in the Balkans has been characterized primarily by nationalistic aims and regional targets. Also during the conflicts of the 1990s, terrorism was not "exported" abroad, as feared by some West European countries.

However, the wars that erupted in the 1990s in the Western Balkans made the region a breeding ground for the "import" of foreign terrorism and Islamic-jihad groups. These groups were exploiting the security deficit and the consequent political, economic and social instability that made the region an attractive area, in the backyard of Europe, for establishing training and recruitment facilities.
During the 1990s the most senior leaders of al-Qaida visited the Balkans, including Osama bin Laden himself. According to various reports of the Yugoslav press of the time, the Bosnian Embassy in Wien issued him a passport in 1993. The Bosnian Government denied the fact, while admitting the loss of some passports.
Bosnia has been a significant heaven for al-Qaida and other terrorist groups due to their participation in the Bosnian war of 1992-1995. A group of radical Muslim fighters was also accepted in the Bosniak Army during the war. Most of them disappeared after the deployment of the NATO IFOR and SFOR troops, while others stayed on and became Bosnian citizens by marrying local women.

Al-Qaida presence in the region was disguised under the cover of several charities and humanitarian organizations that proliferated in Bosnia, Kosovo and Albania during and after the war.
Funding came from banks such the Albanian-Arab Islamic Bank and from the so-called Advisory and Reformation Committee connected to Osama bin Laden.
Opium poppies, already exploited in the Balkans before 1995, soon became the most important drug production in the Balkans. The 23 October 2001 arrest in Bosnia of operatives of two al Qaeda cells directly linked to the heroin trade underscored the narco-jihad culture of the new terrorist threat in the Balkans.

September 11th introduces in the Western Balkans a paradox. On one hand, Western countries realized the real threat existing in the region: a terrorist threat that deeply differs from the previous one because not longer related to national claims and local targets, but based on a transnational web intended to "export" terrorism outside the Balkan region.
On the other hand, the September 11th attacks confined the Balkan region to the periphery of the Global War on Terrorism, which is focused on Afghanistan, Iraq and the Broader Middle East.

Nevertheless, the 2003 State Department Patterns of Global Terrorism report notes that "Despite limited resources, the countries of Southeast Europe have actively supported the international Coalition against terrorism. Albania, Serbia-Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, and Bulgaria cooperated to combat organized crime and various forms of trafficking, enhance border security, and improve training for border security personnel." The report says that Albania and Bosnia shut down non-governmental organizations with links to terrorism and  froze terrorist assets.

Moreover, the NATO and EU presence on the ground, together with other international actors, provides important resources for anti-terrorist efforts and stabilization of the region.
The 29 July 2003, NATO and the EU agreed on a concerted approach on security and stability in the Western Balkans. The agreement says that "NATO and the EU share a common vision for the future of the Western Balkans: self-sustaining stability based on democratic and effective government structures and a viable free market economy, leading to further rapprochement towards European and Euro-Atlantic structures ... While much progress has been made, the task is not yet complete. The Western Balkans are still charachterised by inter-ethnic tensions including cross-border effects. Economies are only slowly recovering and the pace of reforms needs to be accelerated. Organised crime and corruption bedevil governments and communities. Despite significant recent successes, some prominent indicted war criminals are still at liberty supported by criminal networks."

In this respect, the murder of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic in March 2003 constitutes the most dramatic example of the seriousness of the threat represented by the criminal networks to the region's stability and development.
Security, respect of the rule of law, and economic development constitute the three basic pillars necessary to achieve a stable and peaceful self-sustainability in the Balkans. Three pillars that are strictly linked and interdependent, as democracy, respect of human rights, economic and social developments, can be achieved only in a safe and stable area and vice versa.

Regional and international cooperation are fundamental in this respect. NATO and the EU activities are "mutually reinforcing", as illustrated by the close cooperation established in the security field over the past years, and by the smooth transition from NATO to the EU of the operations in FYROM (Allied Harmony-Concordia) and in Bosnia and Herzegovina (SFOR-Althea).

The growing role and responsibilities of the European Union is also demonstrated by the dimension of its political and financial commitment to the region. During the Summit with the Western Balkan countries, held in Thessaloniki in June 2003, EU leaders recognized the countries of the region as prospective EU members. The EU also allotted to the region about 4.65 billion Euro for the years 2000-2006.
Even if the aids decreased significantly over the past few years (from 805 million Euro in 2001 to 548 million Euro in 2004), the efforts spent today by the International community have no reference in the past for the dimension of the investments as well as for the goals of the intervention.

However, the political and financial efforts towards the Balkan region must have the end to promote local and regional economic actors and subjects. We must avoid the errors that jeopardized the reconstruction process in Bosnia where the 50% of the consumes are financed by international aids.
Moreover, a perspective of integration and association in the Euro-Atlantic institutions will be possible only if coupled by a strong commitment of the countries of the region in order to develop, to update and to adapt their legislation to the European standards: in different fields, from the economy to the enforcing of democratic and effective Institutions, as well as to the engagement of a strong struggle against the organized crime.

In this respect many steps have been made but many challenges are still ahead.  At present, there is the need to redefine our common responsibilities and to find the right mix of strategies able to project our vision beyond the short term and the peacekeeping operations, towards institutional efficiency, accountable civil societies, and competitive economic infrastructures.

Although today some Western Balkan countries are ready to contribute to the international security and participating abroad in peace support operations, the economic and social development at home remains in danger.
According to recent reports, the FYROM industrial production is slumping; approximately one of every three Serbs (working age population) is unemployed; Bosnia is economically dependent on Western aid; and unemployment in Kosovo is around the 60 and 70 %.
These problems are also significantly complicated by the new wave of repatriations of war refugees as well as by the EU immigration restrictions.

Moreover, the foreign investors are today looking carefully through the Western Balkans and allocating their capitals in countries like Bulgaria and Romania and, more recently, Croatia and Turkey. This attitude is creating a dividing line along the Western Balkans, identifying a group of countries significantly benefiting from their EU prospects, while others are struggling not to fall into total economic collapse.

Redefining the future strategies for the Western Balkans means, first of all, to commit the countries of the region and the international community to an agreed solution on the future status of Kosovo.

However, besides the territorial security issues, increasingly critical today are variables such as stalled democratic and social reforms and the lack of a real and tangible economic development. Elements which constitute a breeding ground for international terrorism.

These are the challenges ahead of the Western Balkans. These must be the present challenges of the Euro-Atlantic institution.